Insights
Sharper Thinking. No Theory Decks.
Practitioner-led insights forged under live market constraints.
Grounded in live experience across FX, rates, credit, equity, volatility, and funding and financing structures.
Executive Briefs
Focused notes on how hedging, derivatives, and risk structures actually behave under live portfolio and balance sheet constraints.
FX Certainty in Cross-Border M&A
In cross-border M&A, FX risk becomes a governance problem before it becomes a market problem.
Commitment is required before certainty exists, forcing structurally flawed hedging decisions.
FX outcomes only stabilise when commitment and deal probability are aligned.
FX Swaps vs Cross-Currency Swaps – two tools, two jobs
Long-dated FX hedging breaks not when markets move, but when the wrong instrument is asked to carry the wrong exposure for too long.
Inflation Collars in Infrastructure
CPI-linked revenues do not mean inflation protection.
When debt is fixed and a regulatory reset is coming, high inflation is a deferred liability.
A bounded collar overlay hedges what actually matters, without paying premium for outcomes you can tolerate.
Why “Successful” Rates Hedges Still Break
Rates hedges don’t fail just because rates move.
They fail because the risks that matter most were deferred.
FX Hedging for Equity Portfolios – What Actually Matters
FX hedging in equity portfolios is not a question of right or wrong. It is a series of trade-offs shaped by carry, governance, and indefinite holding periods. What works in the short term often fails over time – and the reasons are structural, not technical.
Collateral Drag – Capital, Liquidity and Derivatives
What was once plumbing is now capital.
Collateral increasingly determines liquidity resilience and realised performance in derivatives portfolios.
When Convexity Matters Most
Tail hedging only works if convexity can be turned into cash when it matters. Governance, timing, and discipline determine whether protection becomes liquidity – or pointless drama.
When Diversification Fails – How Convexity Becomes Liquidity
Diversification works until liquidity disappears. When markets break, outcomes depend on whether convexity is turned into cash before it decays.
Practitioner Papers
Deep Dives into Structural Performance
Long-form papers for investors and treasury professionals who want to understand how derivatives, hedges, and funding structures behave across full market cycles.
The Credit Hedge Illusion
Credit hedging is widely treated as prudent risk management.
In practice, many credit hedges transfer accounting volatility rather than economic loss.
Why Rates Hedges Don’t Behave
Rates hedges often perform exactly as designed and still fail.
A guide to structural failure modes, collateral risk, and deferred regime risk
Turning Convexity into Cash
Most tail hedges work but still fail portfolios.
A guide to monetisation doctrine, trigger frameworks, and turning convexity into cash.
Monetising Derivative Hedges
Most institutional hedges work.
The gains just never get converted to cash.
A guide to building a monetisation doctrine that changes that.
Contingent FX Forwards in Cross-Border M&A
FX certainty in cross-border M&A without break risk.
How contingent FX forwards work, when to use them, and why trigger design determines success.
Convexity in Portfolios
Most institutions have hedges. Few have a convexity programme.
A practitioner’s guide to building, sizing, and governing one that actually works.
Volatility as an Asset
Volatility is a tradeable asset, not just a risk metric.
A framework for pricing, timing, and deploying vol in institutional portfolios.
Options as risk tools
Most institutions that use options understand the payoffs. They don’t understand what they’re actually trading.
This paper reframes options the way a trading desk does – as bundles of specific exposures, each with a cost.
If your hedge isn’t behaving the way you expected, this is why.
Quantitative Investment Strategies
QIS is sold as a strategy. It behaves as a structure.
A practitioner framework for institutional allocators on counterparty risk, cost drag and exit mechanics.
Media & Speaking
Where Markets Meet Reality
Panels, interviews, and industry forums where the gap between theory and practice gets examined.
Asia EQD 2024 – The Future of Multi-Asset Investment Strategies
Mike Duncan, Founder & Head of Advisory at Para Bellum Advisors, will speak at Asia EQD 2024, joining a distinguished panel to explore The Future of Multi-Asset Investment Strategies.
FOW Trading Singapore 2024
Mike Duncan, Founder & Head of Advisory at Para Bellum Advisors, will speak at FOW Trading Singapore 2024, joining fellow experts to unpack how institutional investors are navigating diversification and risk in an increasingly volatile macro landscape.
SRP Asia Pacific 2024
Mike Duncan joins the SRP Asia 2024 conference in Singapore as a featured panelist, sharing insights on macroeconomic forces and investment strategy for institutional portfolios. A deep dive into navigating uncertainty through structure and strategy.
Exploring Collateral Optimisation with The Hive
In this interview with The Finance Hive, Para Bellum Advisors founder Mike Duncan shares how institutions can unlock operational alpha by treating collateral management not as a cost centre, but as a performance lever.