Insights

Sharper Thinking. No Theory Decks.

Practitioner-led insights forged under live market constraints.

Grounded in live experience across FX, rates, credit, equity, volatility, and funding and financing structures.

Executive Briefs

Focused notes on how hedging, derivatives, and risk structures actually behave under live portfolio and balance sheet constraints.

The Unowned Layer – The Advisory Gap in Most Complex Portfolios

Every adviser in your circle stops at the boundary of their mandate. Legal stops at entity structure. Accountants stop at reporting. Banks stop at what they can sell.

The layer where hedges interact, collateral consumes capital, and overlays drift belongs to nobody.

This brief explains what that costs, and six questions to determine whether it applies to your portfolio.

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Quantitative Investment Strategies – What the Signal Doesn’t Show You

QIS is not just a strategy. It is a bilateral OTC contract with a dealer who prices your position, provides your liquidity, and controls your exit.

Most allocator analysis stops at the signal layer. Most realised losses occur in the layers below it.

This brief explains the four structural risks your marketing presentation is not showing you.

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The Rates Hedge That Looked Right – Until It Didn’t

Long-dated rates hedge can neutralise duration, satisfy accounting requirements, and pass every governance test at inception, and still quietly undermine the portfolio years later.

This brief explains how structural fragility accumulates, where collateral becomes the real risk, and four questions every CIO should be asking before it matters.

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The Portfolio Your Private Banker Won’t Build

A private bank portfolio is designed to manage your relationship with the bank, not to maximise your wealth.

This brief shows what direct ownership, absolute return discipline, and explicit tail protection produce over a full cycle, and why the gap is structural, not cyclical.

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Portable Alpha – What the Pitch Deck Leaves Out

Portable alpha looks elegant in a pitch deck. Cheap synthetic beta frees capital for an uncorrelated alpha strategy, and the marketed numbers stack up well.

The problem is that the pitch deck omits the financing drag, assumes correlations that collapse in stress, and says nothing about what happens when the option is worth five times its premium and the committee cannot agree to sell it.

This executive brief prices what the pitch deck leaves out.

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Total Portfolio Approach – Closing the Capability Gap

Most institutions that say they run Total Portfolio Approach are not. Better governance documents and risk dashboards are genuine improvements.

They are not TPA. Real execution requires portfolio-level decision authority, derivatives fluency, and a risk function embedded in investment decisions, not reporting on them afterwards.

This brief explains the gap.

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Credit Hedging – Defensible Isn’t Durable

Most credit hedges are designed to be defensible.
Few are designed to survive stress.

When liquidity disappears, familiar credit hedge structures often fail to deliver usable protection and believing you are protected can be more dangerous than being unhedged

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FX Hedging Beyond the Roll

Most FX overlays don’t fail with a sudden bang.

They erode returns slowly through structure that was never designed for the exposure it was hedging.

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Practitioner Papers

Deep Dives into Structural Performance

Long-form papers for investors and treasury professionals who want to understand how derivatives, hedges, and funding structures behave across full market cycles.

Designing FX Overlays That Behave

Rolling forwards reduce volatility. They do not deliver long-run FX certainty.

This paper shows why carry dominates outcomes, when cross-currency swaps are actually cheaper, and how a three-layer overlay framework changes results.

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The Tail Hedge Playbook

Every major crisis of the past 35 years has delivered the same result. Diversification fails. Correlations converge. Liquidity disappears.

The institutions still standing had one thing their peers did not: pre-positioned convexity that generated cash inflows while everyone else was a forced seller.

The hedge is not the win. The stronger portfolio you finish with is

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Collateral Drag- Capital Economics of Modern Derivatives

Collateral isn’t an operational detail anymore. It’s a structural use of capital that determines how portfolios behave under stress.

Institutions that still treat margin as plumbing don’t see the drag building until liquidity tightens and forced decisions appear.

By then, it’s already too late

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Media & Speaking

Where Markets Meet Reality

Panels, interviews, and industry forums where the gap between theory and practice gets examined.

Para Bellum Advisors at EQD Asia 2025

Para Bellum Advisors spoke at EQD Asia 2025 in Hong Kong, delivering a practitioner-focused session on where option strategies, portable alpha, and tail hedges actually fail in institutional portfolios.

Mike Duncan, alongside Wilson Er and Reggie Xu and moderated by Nasdaq, cut through macro noise to focus on structure, flows, and monetisation discipline.

The discussion drew on three Para Bellum research papers and sparked detailed questions on execution, governance, and why “good hedges” often disappoint when markets turn.

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Ex-BlueCrest, RBS Exec Launches Advisory to Fix Derivatives Blind Spot

Veteran structurer Mike Duncan, formerly of BlueCrest and RBS, launches Para Bellum Advisors to tackle one of the biggest blind spots in institutional portfolios – derivatives inefficiency. Featured in EQD Intelligence the piece explores capital drag, portable alpha, and how Para Bellum is helping investors unlock billions in dormant performance.

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FOW Singapore Trading Conference 2024 – Post-Event Recap

Mike Duncan joined fellow industry leaders at FOW’s Singapore Trading Conference 2024 to discuss trading strategy and institutional risk in a shifting market landscape. The session delivered practical insights, spirited debate, and a clear signal on where the future of capital markets may be headed.

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Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 – Post-Event Recap

Mike Duncan joined Eurex’s Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 panel at Raffles Hotel to explore global benchmarks, strategic hedging, and ESG investment themes. A dynamic discussion with Société Générale and Nikko AM on navigating risk, rotation, and derivatives innovation across institutional portfolios.

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ALTSSG2024 – Asian Private Credit

Mike Duncan will speak at ALTSSG 2024 on a panel exploring how global rate hikes are shaping Asian private credit opportunities. Held in Singapore and co-hosted by CAIA and CFA Society SG, this flagship event connects allocators and capital markets leaders across the alternatives space.

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