Insights
Sharper Thinking. Real-World Execution.
Practitioner-led insights from the front line of markets.
Grounded in live experience across FX, rates, credit, equity, and volatility.
CIO Briefs
Decision-Grade Notes for Investment Committees
Concise, decision-grade briefs designed to be read ahead of an IC or CIO discussion.
When Hedges Work – And Still Fail
Most institutional hedges fail after they work.
Not because markets move the wrong way, but because unrealised protection is never converted into outcomes.
Why “Successful” Rates Hedges Still Break
Rates hedges don’t fail because rates move.
They fail because the risks that matter most were deferred.
FX Hedging Beyond the Roll – Why Structure Matters
Most FX overlays don’t fail suddenly. They erode returns slowly through structure that was never designed for the exposure it was hedging.
Credit Hedging – Defensible Isn’t Durable
Most credit hedges are designed to be defensible.
Few are designed to survive stress.
When liquidity disappears, familiar credit hedge structures often fail to deliver usable protection and believing you are protected can be more dangerous than being unhedged
FX Hedging for Equity Portfolios – What Actually Matters
FX hedging in equity portfolios is not a question of right or wrong. It is a series of trade-offs shaped by carry, governance, and indefinite holding periods. What works in the short term often fails over time – and the reasons are structural, not technical.
FX Swaps vs Cross-Currency Swaps
FX swaps and cross-currency swaps are often treated as interchangeable. They aren’t. Once hedge horizons extend, structure, liquidity, and rollover risk drive outcomes far more than pricing.
Collateral Drag – Capital, Liquidity and Derivatives
What was once plumbing is now capital. Collateral increasingly determines liquidity resilience and realised performance in derivatives portfolios.
When Convexity Matters Most
Tail hedging only works if convexity can be turned into cash when it matters. Governance, timing, and discipline determine whether protection becomes liquidity – or theatre.
When Diversification Fails – How Convexity Becomes Liquidity
Diversification works until liquidity disappears. When markets break, outcomes depend on whether convexity is turned into cash before it decays.
Practitioner Papers
Deep Dives into Structural Performance
Long-form papers for investors who want to understand how derivatives, hedges, and funding structures behave across full market cycles.
These papers focus on structural performance, capital drag, and liquidity under stress – not product distribution or theoretical frameworks.
Monetising Derivative Hedges – A Practical Framework
Most derivative hedges fail after they work.
Not because the structure is wrong, but because protection is never converted into action.
The Credit Hedge Illusion – A Practitioner’s Guide to What Actually Works
Credit hedging is widely treated as prudent risk management.
In practice, many credit hedges transfer accounting volatility rather than economic loss.
Designing Long-Dated Rates Hedges That Actually Work
Long-dated rates hedges often fail even when rates behave as expected.
The problem isn’t forecasting – it’s structure.
Why Rates Hedges Don’t Behave
Rates hedges often fail without ever appearing to break.
They neutralise duration and dampen volatility, yet still deteriorate over time as risk is pushed into liquidity, collateral, and governance channels. The problem is not pricing or forecasting, but structure.
FX Hedging for Buy-and-Hold Equity Portfolios
FX hedging in equity portfolios is not a question of right or wrong. It is a series of trade-offs shaped by carry, governance, and indefinite holding periods. What works in the short term often fails over time – and the reasons are structural, not technical.
Collateral Drag – Capital Economics of Modern Derivatives
Collateral isn’t an operational detail anymore. It’s a structural use of capital that determines how portfolios behave under stress. Institutions that still treat margin as plumbing don’t see the drag building until liquidity tightens and forced decisions appear. By then, it’s already too late.
Designing FX Overlays That Behave
Most FX hedging underperforms not because markets move, but because structure does. Rolling short-dated hedges can look controlled quarter-to-quarter while quietly compounding carry and path dependency over time. When horizons stretch, price matters less than design.
The Tail Hedge Playbook
Diversification works until it doesn’t. When correlations converge and liquidity disappears, only structures designed for stress still function.
Turning Convexity into Cash – The Discipline of Active Tail-Hedge Management
Convexity only matters if it is converted into liquidity. Most tail hedges “work” on paper and still fail portfolios because authority, triggers, and execution discipline collapse under stress.
Media & Speaking
Where Markets Meet Reality
Panels, interviews, and industry forums where theory is tested against execution.
Nasdaq TradeTalks – Portfolio Discipline Under Stress
Mike Duncan joins Nasdaq TradeTalks to unpack capital efficiency, hedge monetisation, and the execution discipline that separates resilient portfolios from quiet failures.
Para Bellum Advisors at EQD Asia 2025
Para Bellum Advisors spoke at EQD Asia 2025 in Hong Kong, delivering a practitioner-focused session on where option strategies, portable alpha, and tail hedges actually fail in institutional portfolios.
Mike Duncan, alongside Wilson Er and Reggie Xu and moderated by Nasdaq, cut through macro noise to focus on structure, flows, and monetisation discipline.
The discussion drew on three Para Bellum research papers and sparked detailed questions on execution, governance, and why “good hedges” often disappoint when markets turn.
Ex-BlueCrest, RBS Exec Launches Advisory to Fix Derivatives Blind Spot
Veteran structurer Mike Duncan, formerly of BlueCrest and RBS, launches Para Bellum Advisors to tackle one of the biggest blind spots in institutional portfolios – derivatives inefficiency. Featured in EQD Intelligence the piece explores capital drag, portable alpha, and how Para Bellum is helping investors unlock billions in dormant performance.
FOW Singapore Trading Conference 2024 – Post-Event Recap
Mike Duncan joined fellow industry leaders at FOW’s Singapore Trading Conference 2024 to discuss trading strategy and institutional risk in a shifting market landscape. The session delivered practical insights, spirited debate, and a clear signal on where the future of capital markets may be headed.
Asia EQD 2025 – Volatility, Derivatives & Portfolio Strategy
Mike Duncan, Founder & Head of Advisory at Para Bellum Advisors, has been invited to speak at Asia EQD 2025, a premier institutional forum on volatility, derivatives, and cross-asset strategy.
Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 – Post-Event Recap
Mike Duncan joined Eurex’s Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 panel at Raffles Hotel to explore global benchmarks, strategic hedging, and ESG investment themes. A dynamic discussion with Société Générale and Nikko AM on navigating risk, rotation, and derivatives innovation across institutional portfolios.
Enhancing Collateral Resilience: Strategies for Liquidity Preparedness
Mike Duncan joins ISDA, Rothesay, Tonic and Cassini to discuss collateral strategy, liquidity resilience, and UMR/Basel III insights in a global webinar event.
Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 – Investing in Global Benchmark
At Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024, Mike Duncan joined a panel of institutional leaders to explore shifts in European and global benchmarks, sustainable investing, and derivative strategies amid market volatility.
ALTSSG2024 – Asian Private Credit
Mike Duncan will speak at ALTSSG 2024 on a panel exploring how global rate hikes are shaping Asian private credit opportunities. Held in Singapore and co-hosted by CAIA and CFA Society SG, this flagship event connects allocators and capital markets leaders across the alternatives space.