INSIGHTS
MARKET EXPERIENCE. PRACTICAL THINKING.
Practitioner-led insights from 30 years in trading, structuring, portfolio management and risk.
FX, Rates, Credit, Equity, Volatility, funding and financing structures.
EXECUTIVE BRIEFS
Short notes on hedging, derivatives, risk and treasury decisions.
The Unowned Layer – The Advisory Gap in Most Complex Portfolios
Every adviser in your circle stops at the boundary of their mandate. Legal stops at entity structure. Accountants stop at reporting. Banks stop at what they can sell.
The layer where hedges interact, collateral consumes capital, and overlays drift belongs to nobody.
This brief explains what that costs, and six questions to determine whether it applies to your portfolio.
Quantitative Investment Strategies – What the Signal Doesn’t Show You
QIS is not just a strategy. It is a bilateral OTC contract with a dealer who prices your position, provides your liquidity, and controls your exit.
Most allocator analysis stops at the signal layer. Most realised losses occur in the layers below it.
This brief explains the four structural risks your marketing presentation is not showing you.
The Rates Hedge That Looked Right – Until It Didn’t
Long-dated rates hedge can neutralise duration, satisfy accounting requirements, and pass every governance test at inception, and still quietly undermine the portfolio years later.
This brief explains how structural fragility accumulates, where collateral becomes the real risk, and four questions every CIO should be asking before it matters.
Total Portfolio Approach – Closing the Capability Gap
Most institutions that say they run Total Portfolio Approach are not. Better governance documents and risk dashboards are genuine improvements.
They are not TPA. Real execution requires portfolio-level decision authority, derivatives fluency, and a risk function embedded in investment decisions, not reporting on them afterwards.
This brief explains the gap.
Credit Hedging – Defensible Isn’t Durable
Most credit hedges are designed to be defensible.
Few are designed to survive stress.
When liquidity disappears, familiar credit hedge structures often fail to deliver usable protection and believing you are protected can be more dangerous than being unhedged
FX Hedging Beyond the Roll
Most FX overlays don’t fail with a sudden bang.
They erode returns slowly through structure that was never designed for the exposure it was hedging.
When Hedges Work and Still Fail – the case for a monetisation doctrine
For many organisations, hedges fail after they work.
Not because markets move the wrong way, but because unrealised protection is never converted into outcomes.
FX Certainty in Cross-Border M&A
In cross-border M&A, FX risk becomes a governance problem before it becomes a market problem.
Commitment is required before certainty exists, forcing structurally flawed hedging decisions.
FX outcomes only stabilise when commitment and deal probability are aligned.
FX Swaps vs Cross-Currency Swaps – two tools, two jobs
Long-dated FX hedging breaks not when markets move, but when the wrong instrument is asked to carry the wrong exposure for too long.
PRACTITIONER PAPERS
Deep Dives into Market Mechanics
Long-form papers for investors and treasury professionals examining how derivatives, hedges and funding arrangements behave in different market conditions and cycles.
The Tail Hedge Playbook
Every major crisis of the past 35 years has delivered the same result. Diversification fails. Correlations converge. Liquidity disappears.
The institutions still standing had one thing their peers did not: pre-positioned convexity that generated cash inflows while everyone else was a forced seller.
The hedge is not the win. The stronger portfolio you finish with is
Total Portfolio Approach – Evolution, Misconceptions, and Execution Reality
TPA has become the language institutions use when they do not yet have the capability to run a true integrated portfolio.
The gap between the language and the reality is where underperformance lives.
FX Hedging for Buy-and-Hold Equity Portfolios
Rolling FX forwards persist for good reasons – and fail in predictable ways.
A practitioner’s guide to carry, hedge ratios, and when FX options add real value.
The $3 Trillion Blindspot-Rethinking Superannuation’s Investment Function
Australia’s super funds manage $3.5 trillion and underperform on execution, not assets.
A case for reframing the investment office as a capital steward.
Designing Long-Dated Rates Hedges That Work
Long-dated rate hedges often fail even when rates behave as expected.
The problem isn’t forecasting – it’s structure.
Collateral Drag- Capital Economics of Modern Derivatives
Collateral isn’t an operational detail anymore. It’s a structural use of capital that determines how portfolios behave under stress.
Institutions that still treat margin as plumbing don’t see the drag building until liquidity tightens and forced decisions appear.
By then, it’s already too late
Why Rates Hedges Don’t Behave
Rates hedges often perform exactly as designed and still fail.
A guide to structural failure modes, collateral risk, and deferred regime risk
Turning Convexity into Cash
Most tail hedges work but still fail portfolios.
A guide to monetisation doctrine, trigger frameworks, and turning convexity into cash.
Monetising Derivative Hedges
Most institutional hedges work.
The gains just never get converted to cash.
A guide to building a monetisation doctrine that changes that.
MEDIA & SPEAKING
Panels, Interviews and Talks
Industry forums and media on how markets and financial structures work in practice.
Nasdaq TradeTalks – Portfolio Discipline Under Stress
Mike Duncan joins Nasdaq TradeTalks to unpack capital efficiency, hedge monetisation, and the execution discipline that separates resilient portfolios from quiet failures.
Para Bellum Advisors at EQD Asia 2025
Para Bellum Advisors spoke at EQD Asia 2025 in Hong Kong, delivering a practitioner-focused session on where option strategies, portable alpha, and tail hedges actually fail in institutional portfolios.
Mike Duncan, alongside Wilson Er and Reggie Xu and moderated by Nasdaq, cut through macro noise to focus on structure, flows, and monetisation discipline.
The discussion drew on three Para Bellum research papers and sparked detailed questions on execution, governance, and why “good hedges” often disappoint when markets turn.
Ex-BlueCrest, RBS Exec Launches Advisory to Fix Derivatives Blind Spot
Veteran structurer Mike Duncan, formerly of BlueCrest and RBS, launches Para Bellum Advisors to tackle one of the biggest blind spots in institutional portfolios – derivatives inefficiency. Featured in EQD Intelligence the piece explores capital drag, portable alpha, and how Para Bellum is helping investors unlock billions in dormant performance.
FOW Singapore Trading Conference 2024 – Post-Event Recap
Mike Duncan joined fellow industry leaders at FOW’s Singapore Trading Conference 2024 to discuss trading strategy and institutional risk in a shifting market landscape. The session delivered practical insights, spirited debate, and a clear signal on where the future of capital markets may be headed.
Asia EQD 2025 – Volatility, Derivatives & Portfolio Strategy
Mike Duncan, Founder & Head of Advisory at Para Bellum Advisors, has been invited to speak at Asia EQD 2025, a premier institutional forum on volatility, derivatives, and cross-asset strategy.
Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 – Post-Event Recap
Mike Duncan joined Eurex’s Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 panel at Raffles Hotel to explore global benchmarks, strategic hedging, and ESG investment themes. A dynamic discussion with Société Générale and Nikko AM on navigating risk, rotation, and derivatives innovation across institutional portfolios.
Enhancing Collateral Resilience: Strategies for Liquidity Preparedness
Mike Duncan joins ISDA, Rothesay, Tonic and Cassini to discuss collateral strategy, liquidity resilience, and UMR/Basel III insights in a global webinar event.
Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024 – Investing in Global Benchmark
At Eurex Derivatives Insights Asia 2024, Mike Duncan joined a panel of institutional leaders to explore shifts in European and global benchmarks, sustainable investing, and derivative strategies amid market volatility.
ALTSSG2024 – Asian Private Credit
Mike Duncan will speak at ALTSSG 2024 on a panel exploring how global rate hikes are shaping Asian private credit opportunities. Held in Singapore and co-hosted by CAIA and CFA Society SG, this flagship event connects allocators and capital markets leaders across the alternatives space.