CIO Briefs

Most institutional hedges fail after they work.
Not because markets move the wrong way, but because unrealised protection is never converted into outcomes.

Rates hedges don’t fail because rates move.
They fail because the risks that matter most were deferred.

Most FX overlays don’t fail suddenly. They erode returns slowly through structure that was never designed for the exposure it was hedging.

Most credit hedges are designed to be defensible.
Few are designed to survive stress.

When liquidity disappears, familiar credit hedge structures often fail to deliver usable protection and believing you are protected can be more dangerous than being unhedged

FX hedging in equity portfolios is not a question of right or wrong. It is a series of trade-offs shaped by carry, governance, and indefinite holding periods. What works in the short term often fails over time – and the reasons are structural, not technical.

FX swaps and cross-currency swaps are often treated as interchangeable. They aren’t. Once hedge horizons extend, structure, liquidity, and rollover risk drive outcomes far more than pricing.

What was once plumbing is now capital. Collateral increasingly determines liquidity resilience and realised performance in derivatives portfolios.

Tail hedging only works if convexity can be turned into cash when it matters. Governance, timing, and discipline determine whether protection becomes liquidity – or theatre.

Diversification works until liquidity disappears. When markets break, outcomes depend on whether convexity is turned into cash before it decays.